We’re cemented into the empty calendar boxes between the NFL Draft and the the start of training camp, when roster moves, OTAs, and minicamps and the glories (or lack thereof) of last season are the only morsels football fans have to sustain them.
And the more obsessed pigskin aficionados are already thinking about their fantasy draft and DFS lineups for the upcoming season.
It’s in that spirit, then, that we present five gentlemen you absolutely do not want to roster at starting quarterback. Now, to come up with the worst expected starting quarterbacks of 2017, we relied on Football Outsiders’ advanced metrics for the 2016 season, including DYAR and DVOA. The complex formulas essentially boil down to this: DYAR means a quarterback with more total value. DVOA means a quarterback with more value per play.
Now, these aren’t the “worst” players who started at quarterback in 2016. Names like Brock Osweiler and Colin Kaepernick top that list. However, as neither of those gentlemen are going to start in 2017, they’re stricken from this list.
Got it? So here are the five statistically worst starting quarterbacks (who threw at least 200 passes) in 2016 that are expected start in 2017.
5. Ryan Tannehill: Miami Dolphins
Starter for 13 games in 2016, Ryan Tannehill completed an impressive 67.6 percent of passes. However, he threw 12 interceptions against 19 touchdowns and only accumulated 2,743 yards. Football Outsiders had him at 25th in DYAR and 24th in DVOA, down almost 10 spots from last season. The Dolphins went 10-6 during the regular season, before putting up a measly seven points in a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers during the AFC Wildcard game. His yards-per-game total (230.4) was his lowest since 2012.
4. Cam Newton: Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers’ QB was 27th in DYAR and 28th in DVOA. Newton completed the lowest percentage of passes (52.9 percent) of his six-year career. Throwing for just 3,509 yards, Newton chucked 19 touchdowns against 14 interceptions. He was 26th in the league according to ESPN’s QBR metric and averaged just 6.9 yards per attempt.
3. Carson Wentz: Philadelphia Eagles
Thrust into the starting role in his rookie season, Carson Wentz prospered early in the season before crashing to earth. 28th in DYAR, 27th in DVOA, Wentz completed 62.4 percent of passes and threw 16 touchdowns against 14 interceptions. He averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt, throwing for just 3,782 yards.
2. Joe Flacco: Baltimore Ravens
Sure, Joe Flacco has been a middling performer in recent seasons, but the second-worst starter in the league? Wow. Flacco managed to complete 65.8 percent of passes and threw for 4,049 yards. He tossed 21 touchdowns against 14 picks. Nevertheless, Flacco was 29th in DYAR and 29th in DVOA, as well as 19th in ESPN’s QBR. Flacco’s quarterback rating was his lowest since 2013.
1. Jared Goff: Los Angeles Rams
Whatever the opposite of the creme de la creme is, Jared Goff was just that for the L.A. Rams last year. Of course, it’s not exactly like he was sitting behind the wheel of a Ferrari. The skill players surrounding him were, in a word, bad. Goff started just seven games for the Rams before injury, and the Rams lost all seven of those games. He tossed five touchdowns and seven interceptions, completing a miserable 54.9 percent of passes. Goff was worst in the league in terms DVOA, DYAR, and QBR.