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    •  August 9, 2017

    Last minute sleeper picks to back before the PGA Champ begins

    August 9, 2017
    Corey Adams
    Corey Adams
    Contributor
    Corey Adams
    Corey Adams
    corey_adams

    You know who the favorites are entering the 2017 PGA Championship. Rory McIlroy has enjoyed incredible success at Quail Hollow, Jordan Speith is two weeks removed from his Open victory and World No. 1 Dustin Johnson is hungry to return to form.

    We recently outlined our favorite picks to win the tournament this year, but in this article, we’re looking for sleepers – players you can throw a 100-1 bet on or fit into your DFS lineups.

    Using a statistical model at FantasyNational.com, these golfers have been found to set up well for this course based on a variety of key stats. Bombers were already looking solid this week, and that logic can be strengthened with the amount of rain expected. For that reason, two things to look at closely are strokes gained off the tee and driving distance.

    In addition, par 4 scoring between 450 and 500 yards will be very important given there are seven in Charlotte of which range from 449 and 506 yards. Greens in regulation will be the final category.

    Note: Only players with current odds of 50-1 or higher were considered. Sample size for number of rounds was 36.

    Charley Hoffman (55-1)

    SG: Tee – 8th
    Driving Distance – 33rd
    P4: 450-500 – 5th
    GIRs Gained – 14th

     After finishing runner-up at the Canadian Open and a third-place finish last week in Akron, Ohio, it’s easy to like Hoffman at the PGA Championship. With impressive numbers in the key stats above, he ranks fifth overall in the model but is 17th according to odds makers.

    Kevin Chappell (80-1)

    SG: Tee – 28th
    Driving Distance – 17th
    P4: 450-500 – 37th
    GIRs Gained – 25th

     Chappell’s numbers may not fly off the page, but he’s a solid golfer who doesn’t have a glaring weakness. He’s 13th in the model this week, and is coming off back-to-back top 15 finishes in the last two tournaments

    Tony Finau (80-1)

    SG: Tee – 4th
    Driving Distance – 7th
    P4: 450-500 – 95th
    GIRs Gained – 12th

    If we’re talking bombers, Finau has to be in the discussion. His par 4 scoring is a bit concerning, but when hot can charge up the leaderboard quickly. He’s also in great form – eight-straight made cuts – and has been steady in the previous two Quail Hollow events (16th in 2015; 28th in 2016).

    Gary Woodland (90-1)

    SG: Tee – 22th
    Driving Distance – 19th
    P4: 450-500 – 64th
    GIRs Gained – 15th

     Woodland is my sneaky good play of the week. After falling to 63rd last week, it’s easy to overlook him, but he’s consistently made cuts in 2017 (15/17) and has great course history here. Woodland has never missed the cut at Quail Hollow and finished fourth at the track in 2015.

    Xander Schauffele (125-1)

    SG: Tee – 10th
    Driving Distance – 14th
    P4: 450-500 – 19th
    GIRs Gained – 16th

     Get this: According to the model, Schauffele ranks fourth overall – only behind McIlroy, Johnson and Jon Rahm. Pretty good. He’s also playing great golf right now with six consecutive top 35 finishes dating back to his fifth-place showing at the U.S. Open.

    Kyle Stanley (150-1)

    SG: Tee – 13th
    Driving Distance – 63rd
    P4: 450-500 – 1st
    GIRs Gained – 9th

     This might be a longshot pick, but nobody scores better on par 4s of this distance than Stanley. His current form isn’t fantastic, though he has shown the ability to not only compete in big tournaments (THE PLAYERS, Memorial) but also win on tour this year at the Quicken Loans.

    Jason Kokrak (250-1)

    SG: Tee – 15th
    Driving Distance – 11th
    P4: 450-500 – 18th
    GIRs Gained – 44th

     If you’re feelin’ lucky this week, Kokrak at 250-1 isn’t the worst decision. He ranks eighth in the PGA Championship formula thanks to his length off the tee.

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