Last minute sleeper picks to back before the PGA Champ begins

You know who the favorites are entering the 2017 PGA Championship. Rory McIlroy has enjoyed incredible success at Quail Hollow, Jordan Speith is two weeks removed from his Open victory and World No. 1 Dustin Johnson is hungry to return to form.

We recently outlined our favorite picks to win the tournament this year, but in this article, we’re looking for sleepers – players you can throw a 100-1 bet on or fit into your DFS lineups.

Using a statistical model at, these golfers have been found to set up well for this course based on a variety of key stats. Bombers were already looking solid this week, and that logic can be strengthened with the amount of rain expected. For that reason, two things to look at closely are strokes gained off the tee and driving distance.

In addition, par 4 scoring between 450 and 500 yards will be very important given there are seven in Charlotte of which range from 449 and 506 yards. Greens in regulation will be the final category.

Note: Only players with current odds of 50-1 or higher were considered. Sample size for number of rounds was 36.

Charley Hoffman (55-1)

SG: Tee – 8th
Driving Distance – 33rd
P4: 450-500 – 5th
GIRs Gained – 14th

 After finishing runner-up at the Canadian Open and a third-place finish last week in Akron, Ohio, it’s easy to like Hoffman at the PGA Championship. With impressive numbers in the key stats above, he ranks fifth overall in the model but is 17th according to odds makers.

Kevin Chappell (80-1)

SG: Tee – 28th
Driving Distance – 17th
P4: 450-500 – 37th
GIRs Gained – 25th

 Chappell’s numbers may not fly off the page, but he’s a solid golfer who doesn’t have a glaring weakness. He’s 13th in the model this week, and is coming off back-to-back top 15 finishes in the last two tournaments

Tony Finau (80-1)

SG: Tee – 4th
Driving Distance – 7th
P4: 450-500 – 95th
GIRs Gained – 12th

If we’re talking bombers, Finau has to be in the discussion. His par 4 scoring is a bit concerning, but when hot can charge up the leaderboard quickly. He’s also in great form – eight-straight made cuts – and has been steady in the previous two Quail Hollow events (16th in 2015; 28th in 2016).

Gary Woodland (90-1)

SG: Tee – 22th
Driving Distance – 19th
P4: 450-500 – 64th
GIRs Gained – 15th

 Woodland is my sneaky good play of the week. After falling to 63rd last week, it’s easy to overlook him, but he’s consistently made cuts in 2017 (15/17) and has great course history here. Woodland has never missed the cut at Quail Hollow and finished fourth at the track in 2015.

Xander Schauffele (125-1)

SG: Tee – 10th
Driving Distance – 14th
P4: 450-500 – 19th
GIRs Gained – 16th

 Get this: According to the model, Schauffele ranks fourth overall – only behind McIlroy, Johnson and Jon Rahm. Pretty good. He’s also playing great golf right now with six consecutive top 35 finishes dating back to his fifth-place showing at the U.S. Open.

Kyle Stanley (150-1)

SG: Tee – 13th
Driving Distance – 63rd
P4: 450-500 – 1st
GIRs Gained – 9th

 This might be a longshot pick, but nobody scores better on par 4s of this distance than Stanley. His current form isn’t fantastic, though he has shown the ability to not only compete in big tournaments (THE PLAYERS, Memorial) but also win on tour this year at the Quicken Loans.

Jason Kokrak (250-1)

SG: Tee – 15th
Driving Distance – 11th
P4: 450-500 – 18th
GIRs Gained – 44th

 If you’re feelin’ lucky this week, Kokrak at 250-1 isn’t the worst decision. He ranks eighth in the PGA Championship formula thanks to his length off the tee.

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